11.25足球预测：11.25

Imperfect Perception

有缺陷的感知

Is perception flawless? Hardly. For one thing, it is influenced by our desires, interests, and expectations: “From the outset perception is selective and tends to simplify the world around us. Memory continues and hastens the process.”2 For another, even within its limited focus, perception is often flawed. A college student who is positive that the textbook contains a certain statement answers an exam question with perfect confidence. Yet when the student gets the corrected test back and finds the question marked wrong, then hurriedly flips open the book and examines the passage again, he or she may find it says something else entirely.

我们的感知是完美的？几乎没有完美的感知。因为一个原因，它受我们的欲望、兴趣、期望所影响：“从一开始，感知便是有选择性的，倾向于去简化我们周遭的世界。并且记忆持续促进这个过程。”另外一个原因，即使在其有限的关注焦点内，感知也经常是有缺点的。一位个大学生十分自信地回答了考试问题，他确信课本里包含有一个千真万确的陈述。然而，在这位学生拿回改好的试卷并发现那个问题被老师标为错的时候，他（她）急忙翻开那本书去再次查看那段信息，他（她）可能会发现那段信息讲的是完全不同的事情。

Moviegoers in the 1930s and 1940s were thrilled as Tarzan uttered his famous yell and swung through the treetops to catch the villain. Tell them that Tarzan never made that yell and they’ll say, “False, we heard it with our own ears.” And yet it’s not false. According to one of the men who first played the role of Tarzan, Buster Crabbe, that yell was dubbed into the films in the studio. It was a blend of three voices—a soprano’s, a baritone’s, and a hog caller’s.

上个世纪30年代到40年代的电影观众会狂热于泰山发出的著名喊声，以及他荡过树顶抓反派的一幕。告诉他们泰山从未做出这样的喊声，观众会说，“骗人，我们自己的耳朵听到了。”然而，这不是骗人。根据第一个扮演泰山这个角色的人，巴斯特·克拉布，所说，这个喊声是在录音棚配进电影里面的。它是由3个声音混合而成——一个男高音，一个男中音，一个喊猪的声音。

At least a dozen times every weekend from September to January, the imperfection of human observation is underlined by that marvel of technology, the instant replay. Is there a football fan anywhere who doesn’t occasionally scream, “Bad call!” only to be proved wrong a moment later? We can be sure enough to bet a week’s wages that the pass receiver’s feet came down inbounds or that the running back’s knee hit the ground before the ball came loose. And then the replay shows us how erroneous our initial perception was.

至少从9月到1月每个周末，人类观察的缺陷三番五次被即时回放，这个技术奇迹所强调。任何地方都有足球球迷经常大喊，“误判”，一会后又被证明是错误的？我们可以有信心去赌上一周的薪水在接球手的脚落在界内，或者分卫的膝盖在球失去控制之前撞到地上。之后，回放会让我们知道，我们起初的感知是怎样错的。

The vagaries of perception have long been noted by those who deal with human testimony—notably, trial lawyers, police officers, and psychologists. It is well established that a number of factors can make us see and hear inaccurately. Darkness, cloudy conditions, or distance from what we are witnessing may obscure our vision. We may be distracted at a crucial moment. If we are tired or in the grip of powerful emotions such as fear or anger, our normal perceptiveness may be significantly diminished. Also, perception may be intermingled with interpretation—the expectation that an event will unfold in a certain way may color our perception of the way the event actually unfolds. Loyalty and affection toward the people or things involved may distort our vision as well. If someone we dislike speaks in a loud voice and is animated, we may regard that person as showing off to get attention. But if a friend behaves in the same way, we may regard him or her as vivacious and extroverted.

感知的变幻莫测早已被这些处理人证的人所注意到——尤其是，辩护律师、警察、和心理学家。一些因素已经被确立为能让我们看和听得不准确。黑暗，多云天气，或者我们目击的距离都可能遮蔽到我们的视野。在关键的时刻，我们可能会走神。如果我们处于疲惫状态，或者在例如恐惧和生气这样的强烈情感的笼罩下，我们正常的洞察力也可能被严重削弱。感知也可能与理解纠缠在一起——对一件事可能会已经某种确定的方式呈现的期待，可能会歪曲我们对这件事真实的呈现方式的感知。对涉及的人或事的忠诚和喜爱可能也会扭曲我们的视觉。如果有我们厌恶的人用很大的声音讲话并且很兴奋，我们可能会认为这个人是在为了吸引眼球而炫耀。但如果是一个朋友以相同的方式在表现，我们可能会认为他（她）很活泼和外向。